Posted on March 25, 2009 | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Former NY Governor Eliot Spitzer investigates the nature of the AIG bailout in two stories at Slate.com. The second piece, The Real AIG Scandal, Continued, looks at Goldman Sach's comments regarding the additional capital requested by Goldman to secure its credit default swap trades with AIG.
I particularly agree with this comment regarding the Government's response to the AIG bonus payments:
Check out Spitzer's articles on AIG, they discuss a side that received little press coverage. Spitzer focuses on the decision to pay 100% on the credit default swaps (CDS) that AIG wrote on mortgage backed securities and corporate debt using the taxpayer bailout funds is important.
CDS are agreements between two parties without the benefit of a clearinghouse guarenteeing performance. Therefore, counterparty risk a factor in determining the price set by the parties of the CDS contract. The decision to pay the full value on the CDS contracts (using taxpayer money) when AIG was insolvent was made without debate. In a bankruptcy/restructuring of AIG the CDS counterparty would certainly received less than 100% of the insured value. This decision makes the AIG bailout of $173 billion look more like another broad financial system bailout.
Posted on March 23, 2009 | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
The Federal Reserve's FOMC Statement today led to large rallies in treasuries, foreign currencies and the stock market. Breaking down the statement in comparison to the previous Jan 28, 2009 statement shows the following:
- Target range for the federal funds rate remains at 0 to 1/4 percent and the wording regarding the duration of the low rates was unchanged at "an extended period of time."
- Inflation expectations were also unchanged with the FOMC expecting "inflation to remain subdued" and continuing to "see some risk that inflation could persist for a time below rates that best foster economic growth and price stability."
- The Committee's opinion on the economic recovery improved as they removed the following statement that appeared in January's statement from today's release, "the downside risks to that (economic) outlook are significant"
- Lastly, Bernanke & Co. pulled out the bazooka, helicopter, tank and all other monetary weapons of mass destruction with the statement about further increasing the Fed's balance sheet. The FOMC committed to purchase an additional $750 billion of agency mortgage-backed securities as well as an additional $100 billion agency debt and the big market mover of $300 billion of longer-term treasury securities over the next six months.
Today's announcement saw massive intraday reversals in the price of gold ($50+) and in the ten and thirty year treasury bonds (up 4+ and 5+ handles, respectively). The most interesting move is the large drop in the dollar index. This daily chart shows the index breaking down after a two week slide:
Posted on March 18, 2009 | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
OPEC pumps 40 percent of the world’s oil and has reduced daily output targets by 4.2 million barrels since September to prevent a glut and slow the decline in prices. The 11 member- states subject to quotas are still producing about 800,000 barrels a day more than the group agreed in December.
“We need to adhere and then in May we can look if other measures can be taken,” OPEC President Jose Maria Botelho de Vasconcelos said yesterday.
Posted on March 15, 2009 | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
The end of a good week for the Dow, up more than 10% and the fifth positive week out of the last 25. This week also marked the end of Bernie Madoff's freedom:
Posted on March 13, 2009 | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
The debate over mark to market (or model) accounting and its role in the financial crisis made its way to Congress today. The concern is that banks will not incur the losses booked per mark to market accounting as asset values recover over time from today’s clearance sale prices.
Last month the FASB initiated a project to improve guidance on determining fair value and on disclosure of fair value estimates. The project was scheduled for the second quarter and includes determining when a market is active or inactive and applying fair value to hedge fund and private equity investments. The project will now move forward sooner after House Panel gets FASB pledge on accounting rule.
A House panel wrung a pledge
Thursday from the head of an accounting board to try to issue guidelines in
three weeks that will ease rules that force banks to value assets at current
prices.
The commitment by the chairman of
the independent Financial Accounting Standards Board came amid a muscular
display of congressional power at a hearing on the so-called mark-to-market
accounting rules. The head of the House panel, Rep. Paul Kanjorski, D-Pa., had held
out the threat of legislation to pressure the standard-setting board and the
Securities and Exchange Commission to take steps that would give relief to
battered banks.
Congressman Kanjorski’s threat of
legislation should remain just a threat, as the free markets of the United
States do not need politicians determining accounting standards.
"We may help save the jobs of several million Americans and help keep the country out of a worse economic situation" than the current one, Kanjorski said.
Moving accounting numbers around will not lead to consumer spending, job creation and growth. It will serve to give financial companies a breather and time to recapitalize.
I agree that to mark the value of all the houses on a street to the price of the one foreclosed home is inappropriate. On the way up these same companies (and their stocks) benefited from increasing asset values but now that the financial industry is at the edge of the cliff, these same rules look to strict.
We agree with the SEC’s conclusion that fair value did not cause banks to fail. Rather, its use can help to more promptly reveal underlying problems at financial institutions. We also agree with the SEC that suspending or eliminating the existing fair value requirements would not be advisable, would diminish the quality and transparency of reporting, and could adversely affect investors’ confidence in the markets.
Of course, good accounting and reporting can have economic consequences, including potentially leading to what some term as procyclical behavior. Highlighting and exposing the deteriorating financial condition of a financial institution can result in investors deciding to sell their stock in the entity and lenders refusing to lend to it, to the company trying to shed problem assets, and to regulators and the capital markets recognizing that the institution may be in danger of failing and need additional capital.
I believe these (procyclical behavior) concerns are more effectively and appropriately addressed through regulatory mechanisms and via fiscal and monetary policy, than by trying to suppress or alter the financial information reported to investors and the capital markets.
The last thing the market needs is less transparency
and more difficulty understanding financial institution’s balance sheets. The
FASB, under tremendous pressure from Congress and Wall Street, will likely
relax the rules by providing better guidance allowing companies to rely on
their models more but require additional detailed disclosure. I hope Chairman Herz and the other FASB
members find a good medium for fair value accounting that gives banks time to
recapitalize and investor more detail about an institution’s holdings.
Posted on March 12, 2009 | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
“Core” customers will return when the financial markets stabilize, he predicted. “Aspirational” clients have become more discerning, Chief Executive Burton Tansky said.
The retailer is canceling orders, returning goods to vendors and cutting more expenses, and it may push store openings back further, Tansky said today on a conference call with analysts.
The company has also demonstrated that it will be able to pay its debts through next year, prepaying $686 million in debt, and should end the year with $600 million.
Macy's sales dropped 8.5% compared to a 23% fall at Neiman Marcus. Not bad comparatively and may be a sign of consumers still spending. Macy's ability to pay off debt shows management is navigating their capital structure well and the stock responded, up more than 50% off its low. However, same store sales were still down 8.5%, and with Unemployment Here to Stay, I think their customer will pull back further or seek better prices.Posted on March 11, 2009 | Permalink | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)